A Speculative BTC target for 2025
Dear Readers,
All things in moderation as they say, and so time to sketch a possible target for 2025 to counterbalance the recent articles focusing on risk management. But then when we consider that risk is to be managed to both sides - for severe corrections that can hit your positions on the one hand, and for price spikes and opportunities that you can miss out on - then painting a possible target can also be considered a form of risk management. Go on to factor in the likelihood of yet another severe correction after a future spike and we’ve another reason to view this as management of [macro] risk.
The Macro Model
As long time followers no doubt realize, the main thesis for a macro bullish outlook for BTC rests on the LGC model. This model has been well established since 2018 in both providing levels of support and resistance to the subsequent cycles that ensued since that date. I say well established in that the measure of a model is taken in its ability to both predict future events and then have those events confirmed. In our case, this refers to the parameters within which multi year cycles have developed over the years as illustrated in the following macro chart.
You’d be hard pressed to find a better model that predicted in 2018 both areas of support and resistance in the macro as highlighted by the arrows. That the LGC [logarithmic growth curve] model predicted the channel within which price would subsequently develop adds to the strength of the model. Though it may not have marketed the BTC chart as well as say the s2f model [or should I say meme], it has effectively charted the market… which should be the aim of a model.
Of course, this is all very well, but the reader no doubt will be asking what price is going to do in the near future. And here we move away from the macro model, within which we have confidence of price developing on a multi-year timeframe, toward a more technical analysis asking how it might develop within that channel. Where even with the model there is uncertainty [rather a confidence which should be hedged], when looking at the more immediate direction of price another level of uncertainty is involved.
Here another reader might ask, given these levels of uncertainty, why bother engaging in what on the face of it looks to be a futile task? But as stated earlier, this is what speculators do, they both speculate [take a position] in an asset, and in doing so, speculate [predict] on what the price of that asset might do. All is speculation, and being consciously so is also hedged against and never taken too dogmatically or seriously, where one is either over-exposed… or not exposed at all for that matter. And so to the more immediate chart that concerns us here.
A Technical Target in the Medium Term - Another level of Speculation
The most notable point of interest in the following chart is the higher shaded channel [with the lower one being the ‘buyzone’ of the LGC model for longer term investors]. Recent price action has seen a high trading range develop, with price essentially moving sideways while consolidating within that upward channel. Notably, price is also coming back into the LGC buyzone [lower shaded channel on the macro chart since 2018]. The technical projection here, with the bull hat on, is for price to continue upward in the higher channel to culminate in the upper range of the LGC itself with 200k a reasonable target.
The reader might think that 200k seems awfully high. And yes it does seem high, but this is only due to considering the number in isolation. When considering it on a log chart is looks attainable in a renewed bull market. Looking at the following chart, you can see that it may only involve an equivalent 6 month move as seen recently [end of 2023 - start of 2024], and from a breakout of those previous prices.
This move to a 200k target also allows for both this 4th quarter and a full year to reach a possible peak… after an extended period of consolidation. Such a multi-year time-line is in keeping with the previous patterns seen in the BTC market. And though I’ve argued that the '4 year cycle’ is likely to be disrupted at some point, due to a maturing more liquid market, this coming cycle may mark a transitioning phase. Until the pattern is disrupted and broken, it makes sense to factor it in. The following chart illustrates the multi-year pattern so far seen.
Of course, the real kicker here, in this speculative target, is the year-long corrections that have previously followed on from the multi-year moves up. And yet another such correction would make perfect sense within the LGC channel as sketched now for some time. Such a repetition may well see price back, over the course of 2026, to current levels, which in turn would itself provide the future base for price moving forward.
Investment, Profit-Taking, and Strategy
Of course, I am not for one moment saying this is the way in which price will necessarily develop. How could I when I claim no powers of clairvoyance. Rather, I am saying this price development is a distinct possibility on a technical basis, or better yet, to use more precise language, is perfectly plausible. As mentioned earlier in the article, this speculative targeting of price also links back to risk management, to both the upside and the downside.
When you consider that the most certain thing of all with BTC price development on the macro chart is multi-year cyclical volatility, then the consideration of such a price projection makes sense for both the investor and the trader. And here some kind of larger strategy has to come into play in my opinion. Because if price were to spike and then come back to current levels, then the investor/ trader has to ask how to take profits, dependent of course on their time preference.
One way to do this is to trade a portion of their BTC position on a spike while continuing to sit on the rest. Another way, which in my opinion is preferable, is to continue sitting on that BTC position while trading the extra volatility to be expected in alt/ USD. This trade of volatility for USD as well as functioning as a profit-taking strategy also functions as a hedge against BTC, where a USD fund counter-balances that exposure.
In summary, it has been my aim here to provide a bullish outlook for BTC that is also a realistic one as based on the chart and previous patterns. In doing so, the aim has also been one of raising in the mind of the reader questions about how they would negotiate that outlook were something like that to pan out.
Until next time,
Stay [relatively] safe out there,
Dave the Wave.