Speculative Target for 2025 Updated
Dear Readers,
Well, it is only a month and a half after the previous article written on a 2025 BTC speculative target. At that time, just a few weeks back [A Speculative BTC Target for 2025], it seemed indeed a highly speculative target, where price at 60K had yet to break out of its range. Now, with a breakout to substantial new highs, that speculation is looking even more substantial.
The focus of this article will be on something I hinted at in the previous article a few weeks back… before price broke out to the upside.
Such a multi-year time-line is in keeping with the previous patterns seen in the BTC market. And though I’ve argued that the '4 year cycle’ is likely to be disrupted at some point, due to a maturing more liquid market, this coming cycle may mark a transitioning phase. Until the pattern is disrupted and broken, it makes sense to factor it in. The following chart illustrates the multi-year pattern so far seen.
That price should continue to run to six figures and from there go parabolic proper would come as no huge surprise. While that of course is no sure thing, it is something that the trader/ investor should have in mind insofar as they cover risk to both sides.
Such an eventuality would of course involve a ‘frontrunning’ of price for those expecting the multi-year pattern of previous years to once again run its course. The market never fails to surprise, and this outcome would no doubt be one way of doing that in a maturing market. And so to the chart.
First of, a conventional use of a technical five wave impulse move would see a market blow-off on a possible fifth wave move up. Notice the earlier than generally expected peak…. in this scenario, a mere four month move on the breakout of the previous cupping range. In focusing on a possible top, and comparing a coming top with the previous parabolic move, a five wave impulse [zoomed in on a lower time-frame] can be further utilized.
Here also a five wave pattern can be overlaid onto the actual parabolic move up. I count the initial top of the double-top as the top for all practical purposes, for market momentum clearly tops there as the longer-term MACDs show… even though price makes a slightly higher nominal top months later.
Applying a classic impulse move up to the current and convincing break above previous highs gives something like the following below. The first impulse up is projected to meet the technical fib target, where subsequent price action goes parabolic running most of the width of the LGC channel.
An added factor in suspecting a relative short blow-off top is the diminishing series in the number of months that comprise those peaks before momentum rolls over. The monthly MACD also serves to corroborate something like this.
Lastly, to zoom in on that sketched impulse wave up, there is some ideal structure to it:
1] A move up to the technical target
2] Back to possible diagonal support
3] First parabolic move
4] A correction to resistance come support
5] A blow-off top, where price meets a longer-term diagonal of resistance connecting peaks, and comes into proximity to the top of the LGC [logarithmic growth curve] channel… something that has functioned well as a macro model since 2018
The reader may be thinking the TA here is overly ambitious, but I’d suggest this comment itself reflects a misunderstanding of the function of TA. It does not predict what will happen in the market, but instead manages the weighted risk of what could very well likely happen, within the parameters of the technicals, whether that might be in the corrective phase of the market or the parabolic one.
There is no room here for the superstitious notion of an imagined clairvoyance to TA. On the other hand, there’s no room on the flipside for the denigration of TA on the scoffing of such pretensions. Rather, TA is essentially a rational project in managing the risk to both sides. It’s rationality consists in its theoretical/ hypothetical nature, which is always hedged against. As they say, the boy scout is always prepared.
Until next time,
Stay [relatively] safe out there,
Dave the Wave.